Football / Statbunker News

GREENER’S BLOG

by

ANDY GREENUP

COCA COLA LEAGUE ONE

   SATURDAY 2 MAY 2009

Last week saw our recent poor run of results continue with only Leeds winning from our five selections.  This week will be no easier to predict with sides either going for promotion, fighting against relegation or worst of all for us, having nothing to play for.  The overall verdicts have now produced 30 wins from 64 selections, a strike rate of 46.9% and the profit now stands at 18.50 points.

ONLY THREE ISSUES LEFT TO BE RESOLVED

As we go into the final round of matches there are just three issues left to be resolved.  One playoff spot, which will be fought out between Scunthorpe and Tranmere who meet at Glanford Park, Scunthorpe only need a point to secure their place.  The other two issues are at the bottom of the table where Crewe require a victory over Champions Leicester and then hope Brighton lose at home to Stockport if they are to avoid the drop.  That still may not be enough, as they have to also overturn an inferior goal difference of four in the process.  Carlisle will also be relegated if they don’t beat Millwall at Brunton Park.  However, even if they do win they still have to hope that either Brighton lose or Northampton fail to get anything on their visit to Leeds.  Having looked at the fixtures I’m in a bit of a quandary, as four of the top five sides are at unbelievable odds to win but the big question is how much will they be trying?  If this was a few weeks ago and these odds were available I’d be thinking, fill your boots.  I must admit we would be mad not to take a chance with these, so here goes.  My first fancy is Leicester’s visit to Crewe.  Leicester have won nine of their last 14 away games and their only two defeats during that run came against sides which were in form at the time, Tranmere and Peterborough.  Crewe won five out of six home games from the start of the year and it looked as if it would pull them clear of relegation but they are now winless in their last five at home and nine overall and as a result it’s looking rather bleak for them.  GREENER’S VERDICT - MATCH RESULT - LEICESTER CITY (10 PTS) @ 2.7

Next we look at the game at Edgar Street where Hereford entertain the MK Dons.  The MK Dons have lost only two of their last 19 away games and have won their last three without conceding a goal.  Hereford are already relegated and their current home form is very poor.  They have lost their last six and only managed to score two goals.  They have also only won one of their last 14 overall.  The fact that the Dons require a point to confirm third spot they should be up for the game.  GREENER’S VERDICT - MATCH RESULT - MK DONS (10 PTS) @ 2.14

As already mentioned Carlisle must beat Millwall at Brunton Park if they are to have any chance of League One survival and that is perhaps why Millwall’s odds are so big.  However, Millwall can still overtake the MK Dons into third and that should be enough incentive for them to play for the victory.  Carlisle haven’t won any of their last 10 home games and have scored one goal in each of their last nine.  Millwall may have lost their last two away games but they did win the six before that.  At the odds Millwall are just too big to miss.  GREENER’S VERDICT - MATCH RESULT - MILLWALL (10 PTS) @ 3.7

As I said in last week’s blog when I selected Leeds, they will want to take their current form and momentum into the playoffs, so again despite the fact that Northampton require a point to be safe from the drop I’m sure the home side will be looking for that eleventh straight home win.  Northampton have won just two of their last 13 away games.  Even if Northampton lose I still think they will be a League One side next season.    GREENER’S VERDICT - MATCH RESULT - LEEDS UNITED (10 PTS) @ 1.92